The recovery window

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Analyzing the events surrounding the Columbia shuttle tragedy, we explore a high-risk organization's response to a recovery window, defined as the period between an ambiguous threat and a major accident (or prevented accident) in which constructive collective action is feasible. We show that Columbia's recovery window was characterized by active discounting of risk, fragmented disciplinary-based analyses, and a wait-and-see orientation to action. We propose mechanisms at three levels of analysis to explain this confirmatory response. We then suggest an alternative, preferred response to ambiguous threats in high-risk systems, characterized by over-responsiveness and a learning orientation, which we call an exploratory response. Leadership is critical to moving an organization away from the natural tendency to downplay ambiguous threats and toward an exploratory response.